Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4455
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 4455 · PHL → FLL
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 2:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.