Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 4524 · AUS → MCO
departs 10:43 AM CT · arrives 2:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.