Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
GOJET · FLIGHT G7 4569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
G7 4569 · CVG → IAD
departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at CVG that day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.23 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.