Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

JAPAN AIRLINES · FLIGHT JL 7 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

JL 7 · BOS → NRT

departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM JST

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 7 · BOS → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?