Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
LH 430 · FRA → ORD
departs 10:48 AM CEST · arrives 12:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.