Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
LH 434 · MUC → ORD
departs 4:01 PM CEST · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 34%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC
Weather at each end
MUC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.