Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
LH 454 · FRA → SFO
departs 10:23 AM CEST · arrives 12:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.