Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3394
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3394 · ORD → COU
departs 8:46 AM CT · arrives 10:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at COU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at COU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to COU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at COU that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
COU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
COU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.