Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3400 · LBB → PHX
departs 6:28 AM CT · arrives 6:23 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at LBB that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from LBB are usually not late
Weather at each end
LBB (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.21 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.