Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3434 · TUL → PHX
departs 8:38 AM CT · arrives 9:20 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
TUL is prone to delays
↓
8am departures from TUL are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.50 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.