Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3446
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3446 · CMH → ORD
departs 6:43 AM ET · arrives 7:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.11 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.