Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3476 · HSV → DFW
departs 9:44 AM CT · arrives 11:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/12 17%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HSV is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HSV (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.