Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3496 · HPN → ORD
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
HPN is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.