Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3500 · LBB → DFW
departs 8:57 AM CT · arrives 10:22 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LBB that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
LBB (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.64 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.