Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3512 · CID → ORD
departs 5:10 AM CT · arrives 6:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 7%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
CID is prone to delays
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.