Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3517 · MCI → ORD
departs 7:21 AM CT · arrives 8:57 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
7am departures from MCI are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.41 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.