Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3521 · BMI → ORD
departs 5:05 AM CT · arrives 6:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Tue 10/13 3%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 6%
Sat 10/17 6%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BMI that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BMI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.55 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.