Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3571
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3571 · TUL → ORD
departs 6:12 AM CT · arrives 8:14 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Mon 10/12 9%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.45 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.