Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3584 · ORD → SGF
departs 8:29 AM CT · arrives 10:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SGF that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into SGF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.