Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3595
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3595 · ORD → XNA
departs 8:14 AM CT · arrives 10:06 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.91 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.