Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3600
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3600 · ORD → YUL
departs 8:31 AM CT · arrives 11:55 AM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at YUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YUL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.17 in
YUL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.