Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3603
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3603 · DFW → XNA
departs 8:22 AM CT · arrives 9:39 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
XNA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into XNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.