Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3614 · XNA → DFW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
XNA is prone to delays
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from XNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.70 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.