Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3617 · GJT → PHX
departs 11:59 AM MT · arrives 12:43 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave GJT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at GJT that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
GJT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GJT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.47 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.