Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3617 · PHX → GJT
departs 8:54 AM MT · arrives 11:34 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at GJT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GJT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at GJT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GJT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at GJT that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GJT (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.