Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3649 · TUS → PHX
departs 8:47 AM MT · arrives 9:54 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.