Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3657
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3657 · BGR → ORD
departs 6:35 AM ET · arrives 8:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BGR that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.29 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.