Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3676
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3676 · DFW → CID
departs 7:43 AM CT · arrives 9:46 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Mon 10/12 6%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at CID more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CID?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CID
↑
Other factors
↑
7am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CID (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.