Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3709 · TXK → DFW
departs 6:07 AM CT · arrives 7:29 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 6%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave TXK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TXK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.