Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3713 · MHK → ORD
departs 7:07 AM CT · arrives 8:54 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MHK that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MHK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.65 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.