Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3762
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3762 · BWI → ORD
departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sun 10/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.