Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3797
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3797 · SPS → DFW
departs 6:09 AM CT · arrives 7:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SPS that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
SPS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SPS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.43 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.