Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3804 · MHK → DFW
departs 5:43 AM CT · arrives 7:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 5%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MHK that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MHK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MHK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3.33333 mi Precip 1.15 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.