Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3807 · CVG → BOS
departs 8:22 AM ET · arrives 10:36 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 6% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.