Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3812 · ORD → HPN
departs 8:10 AM CT · arrives 11:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HPN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HPN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
HPN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.