Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3845 · SPI → ORD
departs 6:01 AM CT · arrives 7:18 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Mon 10/12 6%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SPI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SPI that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SPI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.