Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3867
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3867 · GSP → ORD
departs 6:07 AM ET · arrives 7:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.