Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3872
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3872 · PIA → ORD
departs 6:17 AM CT · arrives 7:23 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PIA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PIA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.