Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3894 · CVG → ORD
departs 9:24 AM ET · arrives 9:53 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 34%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9am departures from CVG are usually not late
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.42 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.