Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3919
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3919 · GRK → DFW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Mon 10/12 7%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave GRK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
GRK is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GRK (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.