Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3920
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3920 · DFW → AMA
departs 8:21 AM CT · arrives 9:39 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into AMA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.70 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.