Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3963
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3963 · ORD → AVL
departs 8:01 AM CT · arrives 10:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.33 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.