Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3964 · XNA → PHX
departs 2:08 PM CT · arrives 3:22 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±9 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.70 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.