Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3977
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3977 · DTW → ORD
departs 1:29 PM ET · arrives 1:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.