Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4032
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4032 · DFW → ICT
departs 7:23 AM CT · arrives 8:46 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ICT that day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into ICT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.