Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4033
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4033 · XNA → PHX
departs 8:27 AM CT · arrives 9:18 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
8am departures from XNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.92 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.