Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4043
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4043 · ICT → ORD
departs 6:30 AM CT · arrives 8:27 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ICT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from ICT are usually not late
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.93 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.