Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4073
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4073 · CMI → DFW
departs 7:24 AM CT · arrives 9:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CMI that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
CMI is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CMI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.81 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.