Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4075
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4075 · MAF → DFW
departs 6:04 AM CT · arrives 7:29 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MAF that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MAF are usually not late
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.