Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4088
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4088 · XNA → ORD
departs 5:06 AM CT · arrives 7:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.92 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.